Fantasy Football Week 13 Start Sit Decisions: Thanksgiving Edition

quarterback

Start: Cooper Rush, Cowboys

Is Cooper Rush any good? Of course not. Is that important? Just a little. The Cowboys let Rush take charge over the last two weeks with a pass rate of +6% above expectations.

Rush has rushed for 601 yards and three touchdowns in those two games. Normally, Vegas wouldn’t expect much from a backup quarterback after a single win, but the Cowboys face a struggling Giants defense with their own backup quarterback on the other side of the ball. The Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites with an implied team total of 20.25. That’s ahead of the Bears on Thursday and the Raiders on…Friday. Are we really having Friday football now? Rush is a serviceable QB2 with sneaky potential in DFS.

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Sitting: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins

I don’t know who the Giants’ quarterback is, and it felt too easy to take the quarterback with the next lowest team total on Thanksgiving (Caleb Williams). While Tua isn’t completely out of sorts this week, it’s a difficult situation for the Miami signal-caller. The Packers rank eighth in EPA per dropback allowed and have given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Dolphins are underdogs on the road with a team total just 1.5 points ahead of Rush’s Cowboys. The game total is also down slightly, possibly due to the temperature, which will be in the 20s around kickoff.

Tagovailoa has posted frightening numbers outside of the blistering heat of Miami. In games where the temperature was 55 degrees or below at kickoff, Tua has averaged 219 yards and 1.2 touchdowns over the past three seasons, good for a paltry 13.7 fantasy points.

Run back

Start: Rico Dowdle, Cowboys

Dowdle completed his takeover of the Dallas backfield last week with a season-high 70 percent of Cowboys carries. He tied his season high in touches (22) and had 98 yards from scrimmage. The Giants have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs and rank 27th in EPA per rush attempt allowed.

Sitting: D’Andre Swift, Bears

Like most running backs, Swift performs better when his team is winning. Unlike some running backs, he doesn’t have the role or efficiency to survive most of Chicago’s losses. Swift goes from RB3 numbers in losses to high-end RB1 production in the Bears’ rare wins.

As 10-point underdogs this week, a Bears win is about as unlikely as possible. Swift has also ceded the goal line role to Roschon Johnson, making it even more difficult to score touchdowns.

Wide receiver

Start: Jameson Williams, Lions

The Bears are a great defense overall, but their inability to prevent big gains has been a glaring flaw on the unit this year. Chicago ranks 32nd in explosive pass rate allowed (16.8 percent) and 27th in YPA on deep throws. Williams has seen 37 percent of the Lions’ long-range targets despite missing two games. He leads the team with 161 yards and two scores on deep drives.

Sitting: DeAndre Hopkins, Chiefs

A second edition of the Week 13 Start Sits will be released on Friday for Sunday’s games, but we can talk about the Black Friday showdown between the Chiefs and Raiders here. There are no available wide receivers for the Chiefs. DeAndre Hopkins ran a route on 45 percent of the team’s dropbacks last week and has had a route rate under 50 percent over the past two weeks. He has 10 targets in his last two games and has a target share of 15 percent since joining the Chiefs.

Tight end

Start: Jonnu Smith, Dolphins

Smith leads the Dolphins with a 22 percent target share since the team’s bye in Week 6. His target share of 25 percent at the first reading also gives the team a boost. He is fourth in yards per route run and fifth in ESPN’s Open Score among tight ends. Even with Tua struggling, Smith played well enough and got the ball often enough to get home against a Packers defense that has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends this year.

Seated: Sam LaPorta, Lions

LaPorta’s role appeared to be trending in the right direction before a shoulder injury sidelined him for Week 11. In the following game, he returned to the low-volume performance he had played for most of this season, scoring five goals on a 16 percent target percentage. LaPorta is nothing more than a TE2 for Week 13.