The 49ers’ path to the playoffs is murky: Is Sunday a must?

SANTA CLARA, Calif. – As captain and one of the longest-serving players for the San Francisco 49ers, tight end George Kittle not only exudes maximum optimism and confidence at all times. He lives it, breathes it and never tries to bring his positive energy into the locker room.

After a 38-10 loss to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, Kittle took the podium for his postmortem and was asked if that optimism ever fades, especially in light of the team’s worst loss since 2018.

“Why should it?” said Kittle. “We are by no means where we want to be. Losing at 28 is terrible. We don’t want that. … But my optimism has not been broken.”

“We still have a lot of very talented players. We’re going to get some guys back and I continue to have every confidence in the coaching staff to put our guys in a position to make plays and I’m not worried about that. But it will definitely go uphill.” grind and see what we’re capable of, which I’m looking forward to.

While optimism is an integral part of Kittle’s job description, it’s becoming increasingly difficult for outsiders to believe that these 49ers can find another level of closing success like they’ve found in recent seasons.

The loss to the Packers dropped the 49ers to 5-6, meaning they were outmatched. 500 for the first time in Week 12 or later since the injury-riddled 2020 season without playoffs. And although they got some help in the NFC West division (Rams and Cardinals lost) to stay just one game out of first place, the 49ers are running out of time to get healthy and/or fix the problems, that have persisted throughout the season.

Even if the Niners stop giving up stupid penalties, turning the ball over, missing tackles, being a disaster on special teams, and all of their other pressing problems, nothing will get easier against a remaining schedule ranked as high in ESPN’s Football Power Index The NFL is ranked as the third most difficult schedule.

That begins with a cross-country trip against the 9-2 Buffalo Bills (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC), but also includes a Dec. 30 home game against the No. 1 Detroit Lions (10-1).

The Bills, who have never lost at home this season, are averaging the third-most points per game (29.1) in the NFL. Their defense allows 19.5 points per game (seventh best).

All of this means the Niners can barely hold on to what’s left of their playoff hopes.

FPI gives them a 17% chance of reaching the postseason with a 13.6% chance of winning the division, putting them behind both the Cardinals (49%) and Seahawks (24.9%). FTN’s DVOA puts San Francisco’s chances even worse, assigning San Francisco an 11.5% postseason chance, with a 7.9% chance of winning the NFC West and a 3 chance. 6% for a wildcard spot.

While the 49ers had a long shot at making the playoffs as recently as 2021, making it to the NFC Championship Game, this group has little to no room for error moving forward. They might be able to handle just one defeat. Two would probably be the death knell.

“We know what lies ahead. We know exactly what the playoff situation looks like. This is it,” coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday. “But actually this week is all that counts. If you have to go on a run and get a lot of wins to even think about it, then you better make sure you only think about one thing, and that is Buffalo.”

Since San Francisco is 1-3 in the division and the best they can do is 3-3, they will likely need help in the event of a tiebreaker. From a wild card perspective, a 3-5 record against NFC opponents won’t help the Niners.

Of course, any such discussion of help from elsewhere hinges on them stringing together wins over the last six weeks, something that hasn’t happened all year – they won two games in a row once this season.

After the bye in Week 9, the 49ers hoped the return of running back Christian McCaffrey would motivate them. So far that hasn’t happened. He averaged 93.7 scrimmage yards with no touchdowns in three games.

One could argue that San Francisco is not only in worse shape right now injury-wise than it was before McCaffrey returned, but that it has even more problems.

For example, the 49ers have averaged 8.7 penalties per game since the bye, which is the eighth-most penalties in the NFL during that span. Suddenly they’re 21st in the NFL in total penalties, with many of those flags coming in costly situations.

The 49ers have minus-8.31 expected extra points on offensive penalties (26th) and minus-8.21 EPA on defensive penalties (28th) while losing four of their games by a total of 14 points.

“We have to be a lot better on the penalty kill,” Shanahan admitted. “When you’re missing a few guys, you have to get better.”

Perhaps Sunday’s stunning loss to Green Bay was easy to spot because the Niners didn’t have the team.

But they’re optimistic they’ll get quarterback Brock Purdy (right shoulder) back on Wednesday since he had no problem completing easy throws on Monday. Endman Nick Bosa (oblique left) and tackle Trent Williams (ankle) are listed daily after missing Sunday’s game.

The practice window has opened for linebacker Dre Greenlaw (torn Achilles tendon) and he will practice for the first time on Wednesday. Cornerback Charvarius Ward (personal) could also return this week. But this season has continually reminded us that once one player returns, two more could suffer an injury.

“I hope that the boys here will take care of their personal belongings in the day and a half that they are away from us. We’ll be back on Wednesday… ready to fight because that’s all we can do right now.” “Fight our butts off,” Shanahan said Monday. “And I will be very surprised that not every man in this building when I see them on Wednesday is not ready for exactly the mindset that we are going to need to achieve what we believe is possible.”

Kittle, Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner believe they have the guys in the locker room to make another push in the postseason. Even though evidence to the contrary is mounting.

“We have really good players who have played in difficult positions before and we need to win some games,” Bosa said. “Either we win and make the season what we wanted from the start, or we let it go wrong. But we will push as hard as we can.”