Three keys: emotions and controlling the ball to win

The No. 3 Texas Longhorns are just one final game shy of their season goals, a rivalry that has been going on for more than a decade. The Longhorns travel to College Station and Kyle Field to take on the Texas A&M Aggies for their fourth road game of the year.

There’s always a lot at stake in this rivalry game, and bragging rights are at stake over the next 12 months. Since this year is also a play-in game for the SEC Championship Game, which would be a first for both teams, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

Resist the emotional wave

Although there are many statistical categories to consider, this is probably the most important key to the game. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian talks about “playing with emotion, but not emotion,” and this game is one of the most emblematic examples of that axiom. Texas has played just three road games this year, two of which came in one of the most unfriendly brackets in college football; Michigan in Ann Arbor and Arkansas in Fayetteville.

None of these matchups have the emotional resonance or stakes of this game in the final week of the regular season. The next emotional wave may be the Cotton Bowl against the Oklahoma Sooners, but the team they played in Dallas isn’t quite as strong as the one Texas will play in College Station. With a capacity of nearly 103,000 fans, every seat will be packed and loud for the rivalry that has been going on for 13 years. Add to that a berth in the SEC Championship Game, and managing emotions will be crucial.

Can Texas run the ball?

Perhaps the biggest indicator of Texas A&M’s success is how well their defense plays the run and how well their opponents can win at the line of scrimmage. In their eight wins, the Aggies held opponents to an average of 95 rushing yards; In four of those victories, they held their opponents to less than 100 yards. The high mark in a win is 125 yards against Mississippi State, which happens to be the most by an opponent in a loss against A&M. In their four losses, that number increases to 217 yards, an average that includes two of their last three yards, with South Carolina losing 286 yards and Auburn losing 168 yards.

Despite some disappointments for the Longhorns on the ground, they were relatively consistent at moving the ball when they were able to keep it. In two of the last three games, the Longhorns have rushed for more than 200 yards on the ground, gaining 210 yards against Arkansas and 250 yards against Kentucky. Perhaps the most frustrating stretch for Texas is back-to-back weeks against Georgia and Vanderbilt, a loss and a near-loss, which were also their two worst rushing performances of the year.

Take care of the football

The two best units on the field Saturday are easily the defenses, both of which excel at shutting down opponents through interceptions. Texas rose to 17 this year with two against Kentucky, good enough for No. 2 in the country, while Texas A&M is ranked No. 24 with 12. That interception total includes three games with three interceptions, and all three came against SEC opponents – Florida, Arkansas and LSU. While that number increases the Aggies’ turnover margin by plus-four this year, they are minus-two in their last five games and have thrown at least one interception in four of their last five games.

Texas faltered in turnover margin early in the year, but has excelled in SEC play, forcing 13 turnovers, 10 of which came by interception, in the last five contests. The Horns also struggled to hold onto the ball all year, having lost nine fumbles with at least one regular season game remaining, giving them their worst year since 2016.