Michigan-Ohio State odds, tips, bets, predictions, lines, predictions

When the Michigan Wolverines (6-5, 4-4 Big Ten) face the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1, 7-1) on Saturday, there won’t be as much at stake, but the rivalry remains the same intense as always.

Revenge will be on the minds of the Buckeyes, who have suffered three straight losses in the series and each loss has eliminated them from the Big Ten championship game. Before the latest blip, they had won eight straight in the series.

The defending champion Wolverines, who were bowl eligible just last week, come into the game unranked for the first time since 2017. Ohio State is now the second-ranked team in the country and the favorite for the national championship at +260.

The Buckeyes’ last win at The Horseshoe in the matchup came in 2018.

Saturday’s 120th meeting of the Big Ten rivals begins at noon ET on Fox.

Odds are current as of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

The lines

Spread: Ohio State -21
Money line: Ohio State -2500, Michigan +1100
Over/under: 42.5 (above -115/below -105)

Distribution in the first half: Ohio State -11.5 (-110), Michigan +11.5 (-110)
First half moneyline: Ohio State -1400, Michigan +700
First half total points: 23.5 (Over -Even/Under -120)

Matchup Predictor (from ESPN Analytics): Ohio State 91.9% chance of winning

Maldonado’s pick: Michigan-Ohio State UNDER 42.5

The battle in the trenches. Two elite defenses. A legendary rivalry. This showdown between Michigan and Ohio State is primed to be a defensive masterclass with both teams showcasing their abilities to dominate the offensive line and disrupt the offensive rhythm.

Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has been putting together creative blitz packages and simulating pressure all season, which has wreaked havoc on opposing offenses. In their game against Indiana, the Buckeyes’ innovative 3-2-6 defensive system kept the Hoosiers guessing and accounted for five sacks and a forced fumble. This pre-snap deception and post-snap transformation limited Indiana to 153 total yards, highlighting the Buckeyes’ ability to control games with their defense.

Michigan’s defensive front was equally impressive. The Wolverines’ starting seven were tireless and boasted the top-rated pass rush in the country, according to PFF. In their matchup against Indiana, the Wolverines pressured quarterback Kurtis Rourke on an impressive 62% of his dropbacks, stifling the Hoosiers’ passing attack. The result? Four sacks, eight tackles for loss and one interception disrupted Indiana’s offensive game plan and forced the Hoosiers into difficult situations.

Keep an eye on Cody Simon, the Buckeyes linebacker who had 2.5 sacks, 10 tackles and a forced fumble in his last outing. For Michigan, defensive backs Jaishawn Barham and TJ Guy were the dominant forces, combining for three sacks and 4.5 tackles in a loss to Indiana, a testament to the Wolverines’ ability to control the backfield.

Both defenses excel at neutralizing big plays and limiting point production, especially Ohio State, which ranks sixth in opponent yards per completion and leads in both red zone touchdowns and touchdowns allowed, with In 11 games, only 13 total touchdown scores and only four from outside the red zone.

Expect sacks, turnovers and limited scoring opportunities in a classic Big Ten defensive battle. With both teams wielding their defensive swords, this team appears destined to finish below the standings in a hard-fought game worthy of one of college football’s greatest rivalries.

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• The current spread of 20.5 represents the second-largest spread in this rivalry since 1978 (largest since 2014).

• Michigan would be the third national champion since 1978 (2011 Auburn, 2020 LSU) to be a 20-point underdog at any point the following season.

• The over was scored in 10 consecutive meetings between these teams.

• Michigan is 12-5 ATS since 2021 (seventh-best FBS over that span).

• Michigan has reported against Ohio State in each of its last three meetings. The last team to make four consecutive appearances in this series was Ohio State from 1986 to 1989.

• Ohio State is 13-0 SU at home over the last two seasons. The Buckeyes are 9-4 ATS (T-7 in FBS) during that span.

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