Could the Group of Five keep Colorado out of the College Football Playoff?

November 29, 2024

Colorado football experienced an upswing in its second season under coach Deion Sanders.

A program that lacked national relevance for much of the 21st century became one of college football’s most-watched teams in 2023 as the Buffaloes got off to a 3-0 start before outscoring the rest of the way to eight Points lost in their last nine games.

This breathless media attention came with the results on the field this season.

Required reading:Deion Sanders: Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter will play in the Colorado Football Bowl game

Led by Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, Colorado is 8-3 heading into its regular season finale on Friday against Oklahoma State at Folsom Field in Boulder. Despite being eliminated from the USA LBM Coaches’ Poll after a 37-21 loss last Saturday at Kansas, the Buffs are tied four atop the Big 12 standings, theoretically giving them a path to the conference championship game and from there enabled a spot in the College Football Playoff.

While Colorado’s season has undoubtedly been a success, the final week of the regular season begins with some uncertainty about what to expect after facing Mike Gundy’s Cowboys.

Here’s what you need to know about the Buffs’ path to the Big 12 championship game and why a win there might not guarantee them a spot in the 12-team playoffs:

Required reading:Deion Sanders criticizes the omission of Travis Hunter as a Thorpe Award finalist

Can Colorado reach the Big 12 championship game?

The Buffs still have a chance to reach the Big 12 championship game, but need help to get there.

Colorado sits atop the conference standings with No. 15 Arizona State, No. 17 Iowa State and No. 20 BYU, with each team holding a 6-2 record in league play. The Buffs haven’t played any of these three teams this season, so a direct tiebreaker is questionable.

As things stand, the Sanders team has several options to get to Arlington, Texas, all of which require a win against Oklahoma State:

At least two of the other three top-place teams must lose, leaving the Buffs either out of sole possession of first place or in a tie for first place with a record of 7-2.
BYU loses to Houston, Texas Tech beats West Virginia, Baylor beats Kansas and Cincinnati beats TCU, which would move Colorado into a three-way tie with Iowa State and Arizona State but would send the Buffs to the Big 12 Championship Game against the Cyclones as a conference result -Tiebreakers.
BYU loses to Houston, Texas Tech beats West Virginia and either Baylor or Cincinnati lose, pushing the Buffs to a title game with Arizona State.

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Could Colorado win the Big 12 and miss the College Football Playoff?

Believe it or not, it is a possibility.

The 12-team College Football Playoff reserves spots for the top five ranked conference champions, with the top four in the first round receiving a bye to the quarterfinals. When the expanded playoffs were first conceived, it was widely assumed that the champion of a Power Four conference would actually be guaranteed a spot in the field, especially considering that it was down to just two after the Pac-12 disintegrated Teams only have nine viable FBS conferences.

As this season has shown, that’s not a sure thing.

Every team in the Big 12 has at least two losses. The highest-rated team in the most recent playoff selection committee rankings, Arizona State, sits at No. 16, five spots behind Boise State and just one spot ahead of No. 17 Tulane in the most recent CFP top 25. Meanwhile, Big Ten-leading Oregon is No. 1, SEC-leading Texas is No. 3 and Miami, the top-ranked ACC team, is No. 6, making each of these Power Five leagues a safe bet position to be represented in the playoffs.

If Boise State goes undefeated the rest of the way and wins the Mountain West Conference, it would finish with fewer losses than Colorado. In this scenario, the Buffs would be 10-3 while the Broncos would be 12-1, which would allow the Broncos to receive the fourth and final bye in the first round.

As of today, Colorado sits at No. 25 in the playoff rankings, 14 spots behind Boise State.

However, the Buffaloes received a gift from Memphis on Thursday after the Tigers upset Tulane, dropping them to 9-3 on the season. Assuming Colorado beats Oklahoma State on Friday and gets the help it needs to reach the Big 12 championship game, it would still be in play for the final automatic qualifying spot in the 12-team bracket to secure the AAC champion.

This scenario depends on several factors, including how Tulane and Colorado fare in their hypothetical conference title games. It would also likely require the CFP selection committee to drop the Green Wave behind Colorado in the second-to-last rankings.

The Buffs still have a path to the playoffs, but they – or whoever wins the Big 12 – will have to overcome some hurdles along the way.

Required reading:Can Colorado reach the Big 12 Championship, CFP? What’s next for the Buffaloes after the loss to Kansas?

Big 12 Championship tiebreaker

Like the SEC and Big Ten, the newly expanded Big 12 has no divisions, meaning the top two teams in the newly formed 16-team league advance to the conference championship game.

Since Colorado will need some help getting to AT&T Stadium in Arlington, here’s a look at the conference’s various steps to break ties in the league standings:

The tied teams will be compared based on their head-to-head record during the season.
Tied teams are compared based on win percentage against all common conference opponents.
The tied teams will be compared to the next highest common opponent in the rankings based on win percentage (based on the record of all games played within the conference) and progressed through the rankings.
The tied teams are compared based on the combined winning percentage in conference games of their conference opponents.
The tied teams are compared based on total number of wins in a 12-game season.
The representative will be selected based on the highest SportSource Analytics ranking (team rating metric) after the final weekend of regular season games.
The representative is determined by tossing a coin.

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Taylor Reeves

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