UM football prediction, scouting report for “The Game” vs. Ohio State

November 29, 2024

Free Press sportswriter Tony Garcia covers Michigan football’s 2024 Week 14 game against the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes in the 2024 regular season finale at Ohio Stadium.

Fast facts

Matchup: Michigan (6-5, 4-4 Big Ten) vs. No. 2 Ohio State (10-1, 7-1 Big Ten).

Start: Midday. Saturday; Ohio Stadium, Columbus.

TV/Radio: Fox; WXYT-FM (97.1), WTKA-AM (1050).

Line: Buckeyes at 20½.

AGAINST THE TREND?:The run game has defined UM and OSU for two decades, but could this be the year everything changes?

Michigan Football vs. Ohio State Availability Report

Michigan: From: QB Jack Tuttle (retired), DB Rod Moore (ACL), DB Ja’Den McBurrows (unknown, out for the season), OL Andrew Gentry (out for the season). Doubtful: LB Micah Pollard (undisclosed), DB Jaden Mangham (undisclosed), Questionable: DB Will Johnson (foot), TE Colston Loveland (unknown), WR Semaj Morgan (unknown), OL Jeff Persi (lower body), WR Amorion Walker (unknown).

Ohio State: Missed Week 13: WR Nolan Baudo, RB TC Caffey, (season), OL Zen Michalski, OL Chase McLaughlin (Achilles, season), OL Josh Simmons (lower body, season), WR Reis Stocksdale.

Scouting report

When Michigan has the ball: It’s one of the worst passing offenses in America, pitted against the nation’s premier defense. Michigan’s offense has struggled for most of the year, as it ranks 107th in scoring (23.1 points), 127th in passing (140.1 yards per game) and 128th in America in total offense (299). .7 yards per game) is only Florida State and Northwestern in the Power Four. Michigan got its ground game (201 rushing yards and five touchdowns) going against the Wildcats last week and will need to do so again on Saturday to be successful – remember the last time a team won this game and not More rushing yards came in 2000, when Drew Henson threw for more than 300 yards and scored three scores for Lloyd Carr’s group. That likely won’t happen this year, and with Colston Loveland at less than 100%, moving the ball on the floor is even more important. UM converted 11 of 16 third downs last week, its best mark all year. It needs to get back to that pace to have a chance.

When Ohio State has the ball: Pick your poison with the Buckeyes, who rank 10th in scoring (37.8 points per game) and 28th in total offense (439.1 yards per game). It’s a balanced attack under new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, as they rank in the top 50 in both passing (tied for 31st, 261.5 yards per game) and running (48th, 177.5 yards per game). True freshman Jeremiah Smith is a one-man team and leads OSU with 52 catches for 899 yards and nine touchdowns. UM star DB Will Johnson is questionable for this game, which would go a long way toward slowing down one of the “three werewolves,” as defensive coordinator Wink Martindale called OSU’s wideouts earlier this week. Michigan’s front four must both get to the quarterback and slow down the running game without using extra men in the box.

Know the enemy

Portal problems: Earlier this calendar year, many college football fans complained about OSU’s use of the portal and reportedly spent $20 million to supplement its roster. But there’s a reason they cost a pretty penny. Quarterback Will Howard (Kansas State) was good, not great, but OSU is still well ahead of UM at that position. Howard completed 208 of 281 (74.0%) of his passes for 2,685 yards with 33 total touchdowns and six interceptions.

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His running back, Quinshon Judkins (Ole Miss), also had a solid first year in Columbus, rushing 135 times for 759 yards (5.6 yards per carry) and eight touchdowns while in the backfield. Then there’s defensive back Caleb Downs – Michigan fans may remember him from last year’s Rose Bowl game when he played for Alabama – who had 29 tackles, 6½ for loss, two sacks, three pass breakups and a quarterback loss -Hurry.

Familiar faces: Just because OSU has filled its roster with talent from around the country doesn’t mean it doesn’t have a healthy amount of homegrown talent. Wide receivers Emeka Egbuka (less than 150 yards from being among the top five all-time in Columbus) and Carnell Tate are still on the roster, as is running back TreVeyon Henderson, who is making a splash (98 carries, 730 yards, and six touchdowns). to complement Judkins’ flash. On defense, seniors JT Tuimoloau, Jack Sawyer and Tyleik Williams are at stake; Fifth-graders Lathan Ransom and Cody Simon in the back seven with senior Denzel Burke and junior Sonny Styles, who are all All-Big Ten candidates. Davison Igbinosun has six pass breakups and two interceptions, but has been flagged more times (13 times) than anyone else in America.

Ryan (he better hope it’s his) Tag: Ryan Day is 12-8 against top-10 teams during his time in Columbus, but that doesn’t matter this week as he has lost three straight in the one game that matters. Entering the day, they are 65-6 against everyone outside of Ann Arbor and just 1-3 against Michigan. Earlier this week, he called it “the worst thing that has happened to him and his family,” aside from his father’s death, and said they all need to make sure something like this “never happens again.” However, if UM pulls off the upset, Day may have to win the national title in January to save his job. The problem is that Day is 4-6 in top-five games; It’s not enough that he posted an astonishing 62-3 record the other 65 times his team took the field.

Tony Garcia’s two cents

Gold Pants fame? Michigan’s senior class wants to do something that hasn’t been done since 1988-91: sweep Ohio State four years in a row. While players like Donovan Edwards say it’s not the focus, those on the other side, like senior Jack Sawyer, admit how much it weighs on them not to beat their arch-rival. In Columbus, the winners of “The Game” receive a pendant in the shape of a pair of gold pants. There are currently none in this locker room that belong to a player.

“After three or four Big Ten championship wins, I haven’t lost to ‘The Team Up North’ in eight, nine years – and then when my class gets there, the whole thing kind of turns around,” Sawyer said at Big Ten Media Days later in July. “For me, being the guy that I am, I obviously felt like we failed not only Ryan Day, but we failed the city. So for me it’s just about coming back. And much more.” We all feel the same way: we can’t do it. We wouldn’t leave here without trying again to do it right and leave here better than when we came here.”

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Nothing to lose: Michigan TE Colston Loveland was absolutely right when he said after UM’s loss to Illinois, “Nothing to lose,” he said about the rest of the season. That’s exactly how it feels. Michigan plays as an underdog with three touchdowns on house money. Lose? OK, it’s expected. Bring on the mid-major bowl and the Bryce Underwood era. But win? It could almost bring down Columbus’s powerful empire. The Wolverines have to play carefree, the defense has to wreak havoc and offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell has to call the best game of his life.

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