College football picks for 2024, Week 14: Fade UCLA, back Penn State as cover

November 29, 2024

Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

It’s almost over, friends. The end of the 2024 college football regular season is just around the corner.

It’s a good thing we have a 12-team playoff this year to keep things interesting.

Before we head into exciting conference play next week and then the playoffs, I’ve made a few bets that I hope will make us all some money.

Let’s look at my best bets for college football Week 14.

(All times ET)

SATURDAY, NOV. 30

Fresno State @ UCLA (3:30 p.m., BTN)

One aspect I enjoy playing in the final week of the regular season is getting a team out of a rivalry loss that has nothing to gain on Thanksgiving weekend.

UCLA started the season 1-5, then won three straight games before losing its final two games to Washington and USC. The Bruins had a disastrous start to the Deshaun Foster era, through the turnaround with road wins at Rutgers and Nebraska to a possible bowl game appearance, things didn’t go so well.

After failing to score against USC last weekend, UCLA is no longer eligible to bowl and has nothing left to play this weekend.

The older players are already making plans for the NFL combine and the players willing to transfer are planning their departure.

Fresno State is a Mountain West team that is bowl eligible after a surprising win against Colorado State last weekend.

I’m from Southern California and grew up a UCLA fan. I know the California college football ecosystem well. When a Group of Five team (Fresno State, San Jose State) plays UCLA, USC, Cal or Stanford (and even Oregon), the athletes on those teams think about revenge.

They were most likely passed over by the big four California schools in recruiting and ended up at Fresno State. They want to beat these teams, and now they catch UCLA at a tough time for an upset.

Ohio State vs. Michigan best bets, predictions and odds: CFB Week 14 Super Six

Aside from the feeling of wanting to win, the Fresno State team holds its own against UCLA.

The Bulldogs rank 73rd in offensive points per drive and 49th in defensive points per drive. UCLA ranks 113th in offensive points per drive and 107th in defense.

Yes, these stats are opponent-adjusted, as UCLA played in the top tier of the Big Ten while Fresno State plays in the Mountain West. But it’s worth noting that these teams have similar profiles and I want to get over a touchdown with Fresno State and win this game?

I’ll cover Fresno State.

PICK: Fresno State (+8.5) loses by less than 8.5 points or wins outright

Penn State vs. Maryland, Baylor vs. Kansas in CFB Week 14 Best Bets

Maryland @#4 Penn State (3:30 p.m., BTN)

That’s a big number for Penn State. But their head coach James Franklin will throw in a few late touchdowns to cover that number.

More than anything else — and just like UCLA — Penn State’s opponent in Maryland is a dead team.

Maryland’s last seven games have been a disaster. The Terrapins won a single game by one point against USC. They have lost all seven games by at least 14 points, and last weekend they benched their quarterback against Iowa in a 16-point loss.

The Nittany Lions are playing for a playoff spot and what do they do so well? They prevent weak teams from scoring and they score too late to make up the difference.

I’m not sure Maryland scores much in this game. The Terrapins have an injury at quarterback and no motivation to succeed. Penn State’s defense has shown up in every game this season, including against offenses like Ohio State.

The Nittany Lions offense faces a Maryland defense that ranks 89th in scoring percentage and 115th in pass success rate. Maryland allowed 38 to Oregon, 48 to Minnesota and 42 to Indiana.

Penn State will score in this game.

PICK: Penn State (-24.5) wins by more than 24.5 points

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @Geoff Schwartz.

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