Yankees slugger enters prime home run years

Juan Soto, pull-side hitter?

It doesn’t sound right because Soto introduced himself to the baseball world as a pure hitter who routinely hit home runs to the opposing field. But over the past three seasons, especially in 2024, Soto has emerged as a bigger threat than ever before.

The team that signs Soto will not only get that most reliable hitter in baseball. It will also get a bat that is just reaching the peak of its power.

This season, Soto set season-long career highs for home runs (41), slugging (.569), total bases (328), exit velocity (94.2 mph), pull percentage (42.3%), and Hits on the pull side (80). a 43% increase over any other season). It would be easy to attribute the increased performance to his home games at Yankee Stadium.

But that’s not it.

Soto hit higher on the road (.580) than he did at Yankee Stadium (.559). According to StatCast, Soto’s expected home runs if they were all hit at Yankee Stadium were 46 – the same expected total at Citi Field – and well below his expected performance at places like Guaranteed Rate Field (54) and Citizens Bank Park (54). ). and Great American Ball Park (63!).

Yankee Stadium did not provide his breakthrough. So what’s going on?

In March I spoke to Soto about how Yankee Stadium might change its approach, as was the case with Jason Giambi, who sacrificed average for more traction to target the short porch. Soto assured me he wouldn’t let the stadium change him.

What I missed was that Soto had already spent two years developing his approach to the record. His standard method of letting throws get deep and redirecting them the other way has evolved into taking more chances and hitting the ball forward.

It used to be that Soto, like Miguel Cabrera, rarely pulled fastballs. Check out the spray charts of Soto’s home runs against fastballs from 2021 and ’24. The cluster of home runs near the left field corner in 2021 (leaving the ball deep) has turned into a cluster of home runs near the right field corner (catching it further forward) in 2024.

Soto HRs off fastballs

2021

2024

The change in his game began in 2021. Since then, his overall pull percentage has increased every year:

There is a clear demarcation in Soto’s approach, which you can see here. He hit half of every third home run he hit.

Soto to the pull field

The final category – home runs on fastballs in the middle/away – is the most telling. Previously, Soto almost never caught a fastball from the front when it was on the outside half of the plate. But over the last three seasons, he has knocked it out of the park.

Here’s the kicker: Despite hitting more balls up front, Soto was able to lower his strikeout rate from 18.2% to 16.7% last year.

Soto’s development isn’t all that unusual. In many ways, he follows the trajectory of Mike Trout, who came to the major leagues as an all-field hitter but has developed into a pull-side monster since 2019, at age 27. Jose Altuve, Trea Turner, Ketel Marte and Marcell Ozuna are among the lower-level hitters who have taken the path of adding more pull-side power as they get older.

Soto will sign a contract worth more than Shohei Ohtani’s current average annual value of $46.06 million; Something on the order of $611 million over 13 years. Soto will get so much money because he’s young (26) and durable – benefiting from a rare bidding war between the Yankees and Mets and because his floor is so high. The Mets appear to have the edge in terms of resources and will to win this war.

Soto played six qualifying seasons. In his worst season (2019), his OPS+ was 142 and he was a top-10 MVP finisher. Only three other hitters recorded six qualifying seasons with a 142 OPS+ floor before turning 26: Trout, Mickey Mantle and Ty Cobb.

Sure, you can’t worry about his baserunning and defense, but at 25 years old, Soto (201 HR, 160 OPS+) is such a dynamic hitter that those issues can be ignored. At this age, he follows the careers of greats like Trout (201 HR, 172 OPS+), Albert Pujols (201, 172), Joe DiMaggio (168, 156), Mel Ott (211, 153) and Henry Aaron (179). , 151). That doesn’t mean Soto is their equal, just that he has a start to his career that suggests he could be a Hall of Famer in the inner circle.

Because the mound was lowered in 1969 to create more attack surface, hitting has never been more difficult than it is in 2024 (.243). In this low batting average environment, the home run becomes even more important. Soto enters the market as his power grows, whether he plays at Yankee Stadium or not.