ACC is poised for multiple College Football Playoff bids while SEC and Big 12 fall

SMU has already secured a spot in the ACC Championship game. Miami will do the same if it beats the Syracuse Orange. If the Hurricanes lose, Clemson gets the title game. Even if Clemson doesn’t make the game in Charlotte, they could potentially secure a third league bid by beating the red-hot South Carolina Gamecocks team.

“Obviously they’re 9-2 with only two losses,” committee chairman Warde Manuel said of Clemson. “The teams directly behind them suffered three defeats. When we looked at their work as a committee, with three straight wins after the loss to Louisville, including back-to-back wins over Virginia Tech and Pitt, we just felt like they deserved to move up to 12th.”

The SEC’s collective collapse on Saturday – when three ranked teams lost to unranked opponents – paved the way for that to happen. Clemson is now directly ahead of the No. 13 Alabama Crimson Tide, No. 14 Mississippi Rebels and No. 15 South Carolina. If the Tigers beat the Gamecocks, none of these three teams will overtake them. If someone in the top 12 loses, their chances increase.

It’s a sharp little comeback for a conference that a few weeks ago looked like it would be limited to a single call. SMU’s continued winning streak, Miami’s overall performance and Clemson’s three-game winning streak since losing to Louisville were the combination of events the ACC needed to position itself. Then the SEC opened the door.

Three applicants are expected to apply for this league: the Texas Longhorns, the Georgia Bulldogs and the Tennessee Volunteers. The Texas A&M Aggies remain alive, but must beat Texas and Georgia in the SEC championship game on Saturday. Without an automatic bid, it is very difficult to imagine entry. The same applies to the SEC contingents Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina, which each suffered three defeats. This is especially true with Clemson currently standing between them and the bracket.

Not only has the number of SEC teams declined, but the opportunities to host first-round games have also declined. The teams seeded Nos. 5 through 12 will play first-round campus games, with the teams seeded 5 through 8 hosting the teams seeded 9 through 12. The SEC champion gets a first-round bye, but will the runner-up get a top-eight seed?

The first round looks more than ever like a cold weather event. If all of the Big Ten favorites win this weekend, the Oregon Ducks and Ohio State Buckeyes will face a rematch in the championship game. The winner will almost certainly be number 1, while the loser would be number 5 and host a game. The Penn State Nittany Lions, meanwhile, just need to beat the overmatched Maryland Terrapins on Saturday to clinch a playoff spot and a likely spot in the top eight. The same applies to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who have a slightly more difficult task at the USC Trojans.

If Oregon wins the Big Ten and the remainder of the above games are played, three of the four first round games would be played in Columbus, Ohio; State College, Pennsylvania, and South Bend, Indiana. Pack warm visiting teams.

Part of that equation could be the Sunshine Boys from Tempe, the Arizona State Sun Devils playing a cool road game in the first round. Tension continues between the Big 12 champion and the Boise State Broncos over who will secure the fourth bye in the first round.

The Broncos (10-1) are the leading contender for the Group of 5 automatic bid and would be seeded No. 4 for now. Boise State is currently the No. 11 team, five spots ahead of the top-ranked Big 12 team, Arizona State. If both continue to win, it will be a point of contention as to whether the Sun Devils (or any Big 12 champion) can advance far enough to earn a first-round bye from Boise State.

The Big 12 is already pushing for that spot, citing the overall better schedule compared to the Mountain West. The interesting dynamic on the Boise State side of the equation: How much does Mountain West leadership want to commit to a school it’s abandoning for the rebuilding Pac-12?

With only two weekends of games remaining before Selection Sunday, these are the key developments: the ACC’s multi-bid comeback, the SEC’s relegation and the battle between Boise State and the Big 12. But the larger context is this: After all of that Unpredictability After a wild season, the list of candidates and scenarios has shrunk significantly. It all starts to make sense.