Big 12 Championship Scenarios, Explained: How Colorado, Arizona State and Others Can Reach the 2024 Title Game

Colorado got into the race for the Big 12 championship game on Black Friday, but it won’t be decided until Saturday.

There are four teams with two conference losses: No. 25 Colorado (9-3, 7-2), No. 16 Arizona State (9-2, 6-2), No. 18 Iowa State (9-2, 6-2 ). 2) and No. 19 BYU (9-2, 6-2) after Colorado defeated Oklahoma State 52-0 on Friday thanks to five touchdown passes from Shedeur Sanders. Heisman favorite Travis Hunter caught three and was also intercepted.

If at least one of these remaining teams also wins this weekend, the conference championship picture remains clear. However, if all three of those teams lose, that opens the door for the five three-loss teams, including No. 24 Kansas State (8-3, 5-3), Baylor (7-4, 5-3), TCU (7th). -4, 5-3), Texas Tech (7-4, 5-3) and West Virginia (6-5, 5-3).

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Who will make it to the Big 12 Championship Game? Here’s a closer look:

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2024 Big 12 Championship Scenarios

The Big 12 playoff picture begins to clarify with Colorado’s win over Oklahoma State. A look at the Big 12 tiebreaker scenarios can be found here. Let’s start with the teams with the easiest way. Here’s who these teams are playing this weekend:

BYU is a double-digit favorite. Iowa State plays Farmageddon at home and the Sun Devils are 8.5-point favorites in the Territorial Cup against Arizona.

Colorado (10-2, 7-2, Big 12)

• Colorado has three paths. Way No. 1: Arizona State, BYU and Iowa State all lose on Saturday.
• Path #2: The Buffs need losses of two from Arizona State, BYU and Iowa State.
• Path #3: If Arizona State and Iowa State win AND BYU loses AND Texas Tech beats West Virginia AND Baylor beats Kansas State AND Cincinnati beats TCU, then the Big 12 championship game will be Colorado and Iowa State.
• Colorado’s losses to Kansas State and Kansas hurt them in the Big 12 tiebreaker No. 2, winning percentage against all common conference opponents.

Arizona State (9-2, 6-2 Big 12)

• Arizona State secures a spot in the Big 12 championship game with a win against Arizona State AND Losses by two from Iowa State, BYU OR a four-way tie between Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU and Colorado at 7-2.
• There’s a complicated scenario where Arizona State doesn’t make it. If Arizona State, Colorado and Iowa State win AND BYU loses AND Texas Tech beats West Virginia AND Baylor beats Kansas State AND Cincinnati beats TCU, then the Big 12 championship game will be Colorado and Iowa State.
• If Texas Tech beats West Virginia in the above scenario, the championship game would be Arizona State vs. Iowa State.

Iowa State (9-2, 6-2 Big 12)

• Iowa State clinch a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game with a win against Kansas State AND losses against two of Arizona State, BYU and Colorado OR a four-way tie between Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU and Colorado at 7-2. At this point, the Cyclones would have a lead over BYU in cumulative conference win percentage.
• If Iowa State, BYU and Colorado win AND Arizona State loses, then Iowa State and BYU will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.
• There are some complicated scenarios where Arizona State loses out and Iowa State takes advantage. If Arizona State, Colorado and Iowa State win AND BYU loses AND Texas Tech beats West Virginia AND Baylor beats Kansas State AND Cincinnati beats TCU, then the Big 12 championship game will be Colorado and Iowa State.
• If Texas Tech beats West Virginia in this scenario, the championship game would be Arizona State vs. Iowa State.

BYU (9-2, 6-2, Big 12)

• BYU secures a spot in the Big 12 Championship game with a win over Houston AND losses to Arizona State and Iowa State.
• If BYU, Colorado and Iowa State win AND Arizona State loses, then BYU and Iowa State will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.
• If BYU, Arizona State and Colorado win AND Iowa State loses, then BYU and Arizona State will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.

What happens if three teams from Arizona State, BYU, Colorado and Iowa State lose?

Let’s look at the scenarios in which all three teams lose on Saturday with the help of MRed’s Big 12 calculator.

• If Arizona State, Iowa State and BYU lose, the most likely Big 12 championship game will be Colorado vs. Kansas State OR Baylor, depending on the results of the other Big 12 matchups, which include TCU-Cincinnati, Kansas-Baylor, Utah-UCF and West Virginia-Texas Tech.

Big 12 common opponents

Here are the results from Arizona State, BYU, Colorado and Iowa State that would be used to determine the winning percentage of their common opponent – the second Big 12 tiebreaker.

Who will play in the Big 12 Championship Game?

For all combinations, Sporting News Week 14 predictions have Arizona State beating Arizona 38-23 and Iowa State beating Kansas State 33-28. We also have Colorado defeating Oklahoma State 38-24 and BYU defeating Houston 33-14.

That’s the worst possible scenario and would send Arizona State and Iowa State into the Big 12 Championship Game due to the four-way tie at the top.

The Big 12 Championship Game will take place on December 7th at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The game will be televised on ABC.