The turnaround at Macy’s, Kohl’s and Nordstrom is uncertain as department stores head into the holiday season

The S&P 500 is up 27% year over year.

Macy’s CEO Tony Spring is trying to turn the business around with a plan unveiled in February called “Bold New Chapter.” The playbook includes investments online and in the company’s best-performing stores. This includes closing 150 underperforming stores by 2026 and further layoffs.

“If I told everyone that I had a business, that we could be in the cosmetics business, we could be in the women’s clothing business, we could be in the men’s business, we could be in the home business, we could be in the…” “The electronics business you could call a marketplace, and a marketplace is very attractive to people,” Spring explained at Yahoo Finance’s Invest conference earlier this month.

The results are mixed.

The company said in its preliminary press release this week that at the 50 stores where Macy’s has invested in better staffing, product assortment and better visual presentations, same-store sales increased for the third consecutive quarter in the third quarter , namely by 1.9% compared to the previous year.

The company didn’t report third-quarter online sales, but second-quarter online sales fell 7% year-over-year to $1.43 billion.

Meanwhile, Kohl’s stock is down 46% this year.

A decline in foot traffic, a decline in investment in private clothing brands and the removal of fine jewelry to make room for Sephora cosmetics in stores have had a negative impact on sales growth, Dana Telsey of Telsey Advisory Group wrote in a note to clients .

The retailer plans to reintroduce fine jewelry to 200 stores this holiday season.

Kohl’s also needs a more structured online business, which previously was “far too promotional,” Morningstar’s Swartz said.

The retailer announced this month that Ashley Buchanan would be its next CEO, its third since 2018. He will take the helm in January.

Nordstrom performs better compared to its department store competitors because of the company’s focus on e-commerce.

Ashley Helgans, an analyst at Jefferies, said Nordstrom benefited from being “brand first and price second.” The company has also focused on “enhancing the selection and depth of customers’ favorite brands,” from Decker’s (DECK) running shoe brand Hoka and On Holding’s (ONON) performance footwear to sleek and modern men’s clothing brands.

But Nordstrom remains cautious this holiday season.

When the company reported its results earlier this month, it noted an “uncertain” external environment and reiterated its full-year profit forecast.

“Across all of our businesses … we have seen a slowing trend,” CEO Erik Nordstrom said in an earnings call from the last week of October.

Nordstrom shares rose 22% to $22.62 on a tender offer.

According to Swartz, all three companies will likely be privatized to avoid the punitive gaze of Wall Street.

In September, Nordstrom’s founding family joined forces with private investor El Puerto de Liverpool to take the company private. The two parties own 33% and 10% of the company, respectively, and the group is offering $23 per share, or $3.8 billion, for the remainder. Nordstrom’s board noted the offer but has not yet made a decision announced.

“Given the way the deal is structured … there’s a very good chance that it will actually close,” Swartz said.

Both Macy’s and Kohl’s have rejected takeover offers in the last two years, saying more value could be captured by implementing their turnaround plans.

But time is of the essence and the industry’s dynamics are increasing more and more. It’s plausible that Macy’s and Kohl’s will consider offers in the future to provide certainty to shareholders.

“Another hedge fund or private equity firm… will say, ‘Wow, that’s dirt cheap. I can buy this company and get a ton of value out of it,’” Swartz said.

“That still applies to both Kohl’s and Macy’s,” he said. “They still have real estate. They’re still generating cash flow, their valuations are still extremely low, so they’re still attractive.”

How the holiday season unfolds can force their hands.

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Brooke DiPalma is a senior reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter at @BrookeDiPalma or email her at [email protected].

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